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Friday, May 08, 2009

Range Trading With The RSI Indicator

For most of the time, currency pairs in the Forex market are trending by moving sideways, or trending up or down, within a certain price channel. For trading in such a market, use the scalping technique with the RSI indicator. These short trades, often only a few hours in duration, keep the pips coming while you wait for a bigger move.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a popular oscillator. It’s a lagging indicator, measuring the past momentum of a currency pair’s price by comparing upward price pressure (green candles.

If you use candlestick charts against the downward price pressure (red candles) over a defined period of time. This is usually 14 days, the default setting in most software packages, but experiment to see what works best for you.

Like most oscillators, RSI is displayed as a squiggly line within a window beneath the chart itself. It varies up and down on a scale of 1 to 100, like a percentage, so it’s easy to understand.

The Technique

The RSI is excellent for range-bound markets. When the RSI climbs above the 70 line, that indicates the currency pair is overbought and that the people who purchased should be ready to sell it, thereby lowering the price; when it drops below 30, it’s been oversold. When the RSI crosses back over that point a second time, that’s the signal to enter the market.

For example, let’s say the GBP/USD is range-bound and dropping toward its support level. Below the chart, the RSI indicator follows it down and drops below 30. That warns you the currency pair has been oversold, and that people should be ready to purchase it, which means the increased buying pressure will cause the price to rise.

If you purchased the GBP/USD at that point, because other traders watching the RSI might not yet have caught on, the price might still be falling. You could be stopped out, losing pips.

But when the RSI changes direction and rises back above the 30, that’s the time to enter the market long. Place your stop below the price support level so that market jitters won’t trigger it accidentally, then sit back and count the pips as the price climbs back to its resistance point.

When the price reaches that point, close your trade. Then watch the RSI to see if it climbs above 70, when you can reverse the procedure.

This sort of range trading is a form of scalping. It doesn’t earn many pips at a time. But they add up, and if the signals are strong enough to justify the risk, you could always purchase more than one lot, compounding your pips as if they were interest.

Another way of reading the RSI is called divergence. That’s when the price on the chart reaches a new high or low, but the RSI doesn’t follow suit. It can be a powerful tool, too, because usually the price will change direction to follow the RSI rather than the other way around, and you can scalp more pips when the price moves to catch up.

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Wednesday, January 07, 2009

How to Use Elliott Wave Analysis to Boost Your Forex Trading

A Free Trading Video From the World's Largest Market Forecasting Firm

This video lesson features Elliott Wave International Senior Currency Analyst, Jim Martens, demonstrating how you can use Elliott wave analysis to identify opportunities in your Forex trading.

This is just a short excerpt. For a limited time, you can access the full $79 online trading course, FREE. Visit Elliott Wave International for your free access.



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Sunday, September 21, 2008

Candlestick Reversal Patterns

Anyone who studies the stock market has undoubtedly heard of candlestick charting. Their history goes back almost four centuries as a method of technical analysis used by Japanese rice traders. It wasn't until the early 1990's that candlestick charting made its way to the western world. As popular as the technique has become in the west, it's hard to imagine a time when there was little information able to be found on the subject.

All a person needs to do is type the term "candlestick charting" into their favorite search engine and they are presented with all types of information on the topic. There are numerous websites, articles, books, software, courses, and videos. There are even candlestick games and flashcards!

The subject has been highly commercialized due to the desire of new traders wanting as much information about the subject as possible.One of the drawbacks of the excess information available on the topic of candlestick charting is that there is as much bad or incomplete information as there is good. Unfortunately, the trader new to candlesticks takes this partial or downright bad information into the trading arena and experiences financial loss at the hands of the stock market. Why? Well, just like any other type of stock analysis, "it's never quite as simple as it sounds".

Candlestick charting is often touted as a "holy grail" in the world of trading stocks, but nothing could be further from the truth. While it's true that using candlesticks can give the trader a method determining whether or not a trend may be getting ready to reverse, it's also important to remember that stocks rarely just turn on a dime and reverse course. If you look at a healthy trend on a stock chart, you'll notice the price movement from one end of the trend to the other takes kind of a zigzag course while the overall price movement moves toward the direction of the trend. If you are looking at a candlestick chart, you'll also notice there will be a multitude of reversal signals that mean nothing more than a slight pullback in price as investors take profits, NOT a trend reversal.

So are candlestick reversal signals a viable method of technical analysis? You bet they are! In order to use candlestick reversal signals successfully you need to understand technical analysis in general.

There are points of price resistance and support that will show up on the chart and most technical analysts learn them early in their studies. Just like any other method of "predicting" a change in trend, candlestick reversal patterns need to be applied to these areas of support and resistance as well. Once the trader understands the proper application of candlestick reversal patterns they can also see the results in their portfolio.

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Thursday, May 01, 2008

Tips From a Pro: How To Trade Forex With Elliott Wave

Free Video Lesson
Watch Jim Martens, Senior Currency Strategist at Elliott Wave International, the world's largest market forecasting firm, give tips on how to trade forex with Elliott wave analysis – free.

The U.S. dollar is the current center of the global financial community's attention, and it will likely stay in the spotlight for a while. That could be good for the forex market – and you, a forex trader.

Already the largest and most liquid market on the planet – with the daily volume ten times larger than the combined daily turnover on all of the world's stock exchanges – recent focus on the dollar is likely to attract even more currency speculators. And that means even more volume and liquidity – a nimble trader's paradise.

Winning in forex is not easy. You need skill, discipline – and sometimes, just pure luck. You also need a method. You may have heard that Elliott wave analysis is something many forex traders use. It's true; wave analysis is not a crystal ball, but it helps you accomplish three crucial goals: Identify the trend, stay with it, and get out when the trend is likely over.

Elliott Wave International's website gives you multiple resources that teach you Elliott. Of course, nothing helps you learn faster than watching a good teacher. That's why you don't want to miss this free opportunity to learn from one of the best forex Elliotticians out there.*

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  • At its core, Elliott wave analysis is simple. Watch Jim explain why.
  • What Elliott waves are best for trading forex?
  • How do I identify trade setups?
  • At what point in a wave pattern do I enter a trade?
  • How do I manage risk with Elliott? Etc.

Your FREE Report: Take Advantage of News Using Elliott Wave Analysis
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*Who is Jim Martens?
Jim Martens was first introduced to the Wave Principle in 1985. Since then, he's built an impressive resume, having worked for such firms as Bank of New York and Nexus Capital Limited, a George Soros-affiliated hedge fund. Since 2005, Jim has been Elliott Wave International's senior forex analyst – and one of the best teachers of the method.

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How to Trade Forex with the Stochastic Indicator

The Stochastic is an Oscillator that is typically used to identify overbought and oversold conditions in your day trading.. The indicator consists of two lines: % K and %D. These two lines fluctuate in a vertical range between 0 and 100. Readings above 80 are considered overbought and readings below 20 are considered oversold.

Many traders use Stochastics to generate buy and sell signals. When the faster %K line crosses above the slower %D line and the lines previously crossed below 20, a buy signal is generated. When the %K lines crosses below the %D line and the lines previously crossed above 80 a sell signal is generated.

After identifying a trend it possible to identify buy and sell opportunities. If the trend is up as on the eur/usd daily chart below then we take only buy signals as long as the trend remains in place. We ignore the sell signals and weaken the stochastic by changing the settings to 5,3,3 which will generate more signals and show the hand of the weaker players in the market.

On its own the stochastic generates too many false signals and plenty of whipsaw which can lead to losses.


As we can see from the above daily chart the eur/usd continued its uptrend from 21 August 2007 until 11 November 2007 a rally of 1400 pips before consolidating in a 500 pip range. The next breakout occurred as a continuation on 26 Feb 2008 rallying another 1400 pips before consolidating again.

As with all lagging indicators they are best used in conjunction with other indicators. The large highlighted trade shows a buy signal on the stochastic with the market dropping 300 pips. Stop losses should be placed below the last low or high. All the other signals produced good trades.

By using a 4 hr chart we can probably get better entries with tighter stops once we have a confirmed signal on the daily time frame.

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Wednesday, April 09, 2008

The Independent Trader Crash Course

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More About the Independent Trader Crash Course

You've heard them say, "Buy low, sell high." You've also heard, "The trend is your friend." Then there's, "Don't fight the Fed" and many other age-old trading principles.

But have you ever actually tried to live by them? If so, you know that it's easier said than done. Because, for example, how do you know if you're really buying "low" and selling "high"?

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These five reports and supplemental videos will reveal to you several key techniques of analysis, forecasting and risk-management that are tailored to fulfill one purpose: make you a better trader.

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About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
he Independent Trader Crash Course is a complimentary resource provided by the world’s largest market forecasting firm, Elliott Wave International. The firm’s 20-plus analysts provide around-the-clock forecasts of every major market in the world via the internet and proprietary web systems like Reuters and Bloomberg. EWI’s educational services include conferences, workshops, webinars, video tapes, special reports, books and one of the internet’s richest free content programs, Club EWI.

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Thursday, March 20, 2008

Utilizing Relative Strength Analysis in Forex Trading

Relative strength analysis is a technical report that allows investors and brokers to make informed decisions about trading Forex.

When investors and brokers look at the relative strength analysis, they are presented with graph of how the trends in the Forex should go. This analysis allows brokers to see current trends in the foreign exchange market and allows them to know if they are interested in buying or selling currency at any given time. This can help an investor or financial institution make educated decisions on which markets are gaining and which ones are losing.

There are many factors that affect the exchange rate in the Forex. These factors can include political events, governmental policies, inflation, and current trends in the importing and exporting business, consumer opinions and even natural disasters all over the world. The relative strength analysis looks at all of these factors. The past trends in the Forex are also taken into consideration, but are not the only thing that is looked at when forecasting this type of market.

The relative strength analysis compares all foreign currency and the exchange rates every day. The report will then be sorted by their strength rating and ranked according the previous week’s rating. This report relies on at least 45 weeks of data so that sustained growth can be seen with ease. Using this analysis promises to be one of the most valuable tools of forecast the trends in the Forex. In addition, it can show the rating of stocks and rate them into which ones are the strongest. The stock market has a direct relation to the foreign exchange market because it reflects current trends in buying and selling, which will increase or decrease the value of currency.

The current trend in predicting the trends in the Forex is to use not only the relative strength analysis, but to also look at other factors such as the stock market barometers and economic factors. When investors and brokers look into all of these factors when forecasting the Forex, it makes for a highly reliable means of predicting trends. This can be the vital difference between making money and losing money on the foreign exchange market.

It is generally agreed that for a currency trader, it is important to understand how the methods and tools are used in both the Forex and the stock market. All currencies are different and the currency rate reflects the value of one currency in relation to another. When there is a noticeable change in the value of currency, one or both values will be affected. Using these methods of comparing the relative strength analysis to the Forex can offer currency traders with an opportunity to better forecast their trades.

There are several benefits to using the relative strength analysis when attempting to forecast the Forex. When an investor looks at the relative strength of a certain stock, it affects the foreign exchange rate. One with a strong relative strength is ideal, but the value on these will not be low. Investors can look at a stock that is increasing in values and used the relative strength to measure whether or not this particular stock is moving up because it has a history of increasing or if it has a sustained high value. Stocks with a good relative strength over a constant, steady time period are good performers in the Forex market.

When using the relative strength analysis in relation to the foreign currency exchange, it is possible to tell which markets are performing well and which ones are not. The key is finding the markets and currency that are moving up on the ranking scale. It is important to remember that like stocks, the Forex is affected by a variety of factors. The relative strength analysis can help investors find which ones are good investments. This report is based mostly on a stock’s closing price and the relative strength analysis is based on gains and losses. The report can calculate the markets report for any period in time.

- Alpha Trader

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Saturday, January 19, 2008

5 investment mistakes you will probably make in 2008 ...

Unless YOU attend this FREE, LIVE webinar!

Have you ever looked back on an investment and asked yourself, "What in the world was I thinking?!" The obvious reply is "Yes!", and that is because...

...Every investor makes mistakes. It always has and always will be true. But even so, some mistakes hurt you more than others. When it comes to successful investing, what matters is to keep your mistakes small and make few of them.

That is simple, but it's not easy. The most critical step you can take is to identify your mistakes and, more important, understand why you make those mistakes.

You can learn how to do just that by participating in a unique webinar with EWI's Senior Tutorial Instructor, Wayne Gorman. He knows a thing or two about avoiding investment mistakes; he's been doing it (trying to, anyway) for 30+ years!

Join Wayne LIVE on the web, Jan. 23 at 4:30PM Eastern, for his rapid-fire explanation of why these five factors lead to costly investment mistakes, and how you can avoid falling victim:

  • The News
  • Macroeconomics
  • Microeconomics
  • The Fed
  • The "Easy Way"

Join Club EWI to reserve your FREE virtual seat for this webinar now! Club EWI is the world's largest Elliott Wave Community with more than 125,000 members. It only takes a minute to sign up and it's absolutely free.

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